What does climate change mean for south florida

Perhaps the most significant human influence today is the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide CO2 , methane CH4 , and nitrous oxides NOx , which contribute to a general warming of our planet Figure 1.

Figure 1. Global temperature shifts over the past years. The zero line represents the year average temperature from to , which the World Meteorological Organization has designated to be the base for climatology.

Much of the CO 2 that we release to the atmosphere is a by-product of energy use, whether through burning fuels for transportation, generation of electricity, or other purposes. Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, increasing atmospheric carbon and altering the pre-existing balance of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases, including CO 2 , have the property of allowing the atmosphere to retain more heat energy as their concentration in the atmosphere increases.

Two bases for the conclusion that human activity has contributed to recent trends in climate change are: 1 observations that atmospheric CO 2 concentrations have increased from about parts per million ppm to nearly ppm over past years while global average temperatures have warmed about 1.

CO 2 correlation is not perfect, and 2 scientific theories of atmospheric physics and heat transfer. This rise in global average temperature has tracked increases in CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and other sources, which supports the hypothesis formulated by physical scientist Guy Stewart Callendar in that CO 2 emissions could enhance the greenhouse effect.

Figure 2. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations as measured from ice cores and direct measurements. However, much regional and seasonal variation occurs within that global average. Most of the recent warming has been measured in the northern hemisphere, particularly over northern Canada and Siberia, with less warming in the tropics and subtropics. Climate data from three states, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, show that annual average temperatures fluctuate widely from year to year Figure 3.

Figure 3. Annual average temperatures for Alabama, Florida, and Georgia from through In all long-term temperature records, factors such as instrument changes, station moves, changes in observation times, and changes in exposure can introduce artificial jumps or trends into the data records. Because of heat island effects, weather stations that are located near cities show warmer temperatures than nearby rural areas. Analyses of long-term records in Florida indicate that most rural weather stations have experienced a cooling trend in average temperatures while those near urban areas have had a warming trend.

The IPCC website provides a wealth of information and a solid basis for the credibility of its reports. The forecasts of climate change and its impacts become less precise as one changes focus from the global to regional and local scales.

However, the effects identified above for North America are similar to the effects summarized by the United States Environmental Protection Agency US EPA for the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions: increased coastal erosion; greater risks of flooding from sea level rise, storm surge, and extreme precipitation events; increased disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks ; higher summer heat; and reduced winter cold stress US EPA b.

Specifically for Florida, warming climate could raise sea level by one to three feet or 12 to 36 inches over the next century US EPA Even a one-foot increase has the potential to erode to feet of the states beaches, and lead to inundation of the coastal areas. Although most of Florida's urban development is located above elevations of 4.

Sea level rise also puts the water supply in the regions along the south coast at risk. Sea level rise could lead to saltwater flooding in parts of the Everglades, threatening both that ecosystem and the aquifer that lies beneath it with salt water intrusion US EPA Furthermore, sea level rise would impact coastal habitats critical for Floridas coastal fisheries, waterfowl, shorebirds, sea turtles, manatees, and other wildlife species. Climate change is also expected to lead to an increase in marine diseases and harmful algal blooms National Wildlife Foundation Studies report that the vulnerability of a region to climate change impacts depends on the effectiveness and timing of adaptation and mitigation.

Adaptation refers to protection measures that decrease the effect of climate impacts such as adjustments in agricultural crop and variety patterns or investments in critical infrastructures to minimize damage from floods. Mitigation refers to measures to slow down the process of global climate change by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere e. A variety of economic estimates have been produced related to the costs of climate change, and mitigation and adaptation measures.

These estimates often diverge due to differences in the assumptions made in the studies, definitions of how the economy works, and data sets employed. Key assumptions Weyant that explain the divergence of economic estimates made by different economic studies include the following:.

Studies can measure the economic impacts of climate change using different economic indicators e. Economic models may differ by the range of environmental impacts considered such as impacts on agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, wildlife, biodiversity, fisheries, etc. Market impacts refer to the changes in market prices and demands, for example, in agriculture and forestry.

Non-market impacts refer to the changes that do not affect marketed products, such as changes in ecosystems, human health, wildlife, and biodiversity. Economics offers methods to value nonmarket impacts, and although these methods are widely used, they are controversial Weyant There are also considerable uncertainties about the magnitude of climate change and its impacts, the sectors that will be affected, societal values such as the value of human life , and model structure.

To understand the differences in conclusions offered by various studies, it is important to examine how the studies treat these uncertainties Weyant Climate projections produced by IPCC differ among the six main scenarios that incorporate assumptions about future greenhouse gas emission, future technological and economic development, land-use changes, and other parameters.

For example, the difference in assumptions for the scenarios named "B1" and "A2" lead to a 1. Only two studies were found that examine the potential economic impacts of climate change specifically on Florida's economy: Stanton and Ackerman and Harrington and Walton The studies differ in the climate change scenarios used, time horizons considered, geographical scales and economic sectors examined, and the methodologies employed. These differences complicate the comparison between the studies.

The consumer price index for housing BLS was used to convert all the estimates to U. Stanton and Ackerman operate with two climate scenarios: the "rapid stabilization" and "business-as-usual" scenarios Table 2. This scenario also assumes no changes in precipitation and hurricane intensity in comparison with the currently observed patterns. In the pessimistic business-as-usual scenario based on A2 scenario produced by IPCC , global and US greenhouse gas emissions will increase based on historic trends.

The increase in annual average temperature is higher than in the rapid stabilization scenario, and the sea level rise is greater Figures 1 and 2. The pessimistic scenario also projects increases in hurricane intensity, with more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, coupled with higher storm surges due to sea level rises. After selecting the "rapid stabilization" and "business-as-usual" scenarios for purposes of analysis, the authors examine the potential impacts of climate change on Florida's economy for each scenario.

The study focuses on the loss of tourism revenue, increased hurricane damages, the value of residential real estate that is at risk from sea level rise, and increased costs of electricity generation as temperatures and air conditioning requirements rise. The estimates are made for the period between and Harrington and Walton focus on the period —, and examines one consequence of climate change—sea level rise.

As high-end estimates, IPCC projects sea level rises of 3. The low-end estimates are developed using historical tidal gauge data from six gauge stations along the Florida coast, equal to 9. Given these sea level rise projections, the authors examine damage costs and per acre value of lands at risk in six coastal Florida counties: Dade, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Monroe, and Wakulla.

Neither of the studies account for the adaptive behaviors that people could take in response to the climate change, which could reduce economic impacts of climate change. These numbers were adjusted upward for both the rapid stabilization and business-as-usual scenarios based on three assumptions. First, a previous study by Pielke and Landsea showed that hurricane damages rise approximately in proportion to the Gross State Product.

This logic was extended by Stanton and Ackerman to assume that hurricane deaths are proportional to state population. Second, following the conclusions from a study on economics of hurricanes in the United States by Nordhause , it is assumed that for every 3. Third, calculations from the same study by Nordhause show that doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide results in doubling hurricane damages.

Harrington and Walton employ a different methodology, and estimate the future changes in the hurricane return period i. Both scenarios show a dramatic decreasing trend in the hurricane return period in other words, hurricanes become more frequent.

For example, given a sea level rise of Next, historical damage costs for eight hurricanes between and were examined based on insurance claims data provided by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. A representative hurricane was selected for each of the six counties in the study, and the increases in the damage values for these representative hurricanes due to sea level rise were estimated Table 3.

Note that, in contrast to Stanton and Ackerman , the study does not attempt to account for future changes in population or built environment, and the potential increases in the strength of hurricanes due to climate changes.

Stanton and Ackerman estimate the impact of climate change on real estate is based on two assumptions: 1 the value of real estate will grow uniformly in all parts of the state in proportion to the Gross State Product and 2 the fraction of the state's residential property at risk is proportional to the extent of sea level rise.

Note that the study does not account for the value of the property abandoned due to sea level rise. Harrington and Walton focus on area, value, and per acre value of land at risk for three counties: Dade, Duval, and Escambia Table 4. The authors used county-specific estimates of sea level rise for , a geographic information system developed by Florida State University to estimate elevation by area, and the Florida Department of Revenue's parcel property values.

Note that the estimates do not incorporate the possible increase in the property value over time. Losses to the tourism industry were estimated only by Stanton and Ackerman First, for the rapid stabilization scenario Table 2 , the authors used the current growth trend for Florida's Gross State Product and assumed that the share of tourism taxes in the Gross State Product will stay the same 9.

This assumption is based on the estimated "base" number of tourists coming to Florida independent of the weather. This estimate equals the minimum number of tourists per quarter that visit the state, which falls in the months of October through December.

Increase in the cost of electricity generation was estimated only by Stanton and Ackerman To estimate and compare the cost of electricity generation in the rapid stabilization and the business-as-usual scenarios, Stanton and Ackerman simulate increases in electricity demand throughout the twenty-first century, driven by increases in population, per capita consumption, and rises in temperature.

The authors assume that fuel prices and the cost of new power generation plants stay at the current level. In contrast, for the business-as-usual case, the authors assume that the growing demand for electricity will be satisfied using the current fuel mix mainly fossil fuels.

Thrilling amusement parks that attract visitors from around the world. Check, check, and check. The Sunshine State has a little something for everyone — but in our warming world, it also faces many unique threats that put all that history, culture, and natural grandeur in jeopardy. Florida, like so many states up and down the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, has witnessed an increase in extreme weather events as a result of our changing climate.

The reason why is fairly simple science. Hurricane Michael Hits. Michael Mann told Climate Reality late last year. So as sea surface temperatures become warmer, hurricanes become more powerful. Last year, Hurricane Irma became the first Category 4 hurricane to strike the state since Charley in , precipitating the largest evacuation in the state's history. And while Hurricane Matthew ultimately stayed just offshore, traveling parallel to the Florida coastline, the dirty fingerprints of the climate crisis were all over the speed with which it strengthened, leading to devastation on the Caribbean island of Haiti.

In addition, changes in overall precipitation patterns are expected more generally as the climate crisis unfolds, leading to more heavy and more sporadic rainfall events, intensifying drought-flood cycles, and further increasing the risk of extreme flooding during major storms like Matthew and Irma.

Outside the immediate and dire threat of hurricane season, discussions of Florida and climate change often center squarely on the risk posed by our swelling seas.